Mahatma Gandhi (1869-1948) the father of our nation had foreseen that division of India into Muslim and Hindu dominated states would increase sectarian discord between the divided countries.... He had also prophesied that there will be four wars between the divided countries each subsequent war being more fierceful than its previous one.
In 1947, in the final days of the British rule, the top leaders of Indian who fought for the freedom confronted each other over formation of Indian rule or government. Mahatma Gandhiji was for a Single country but Muhammad Ali Jinnah (1876-1948), who was the leader of the Muslim League was more vociferous for a separate country though he fought against British rule unitedly with Hindus.
It is said that Pakistan was born out of India and the leaders of Pakistan did not know how tp govern themselves and they fell backwards in economic developments.
Before Gandhi’s martyrdom, and before he received the title Mahatma (great soul), he prophesied [in 1947] that any partition of India would magnify the historic discord and suspicion between Muslims and Hindus in South Asia. Partition, he said, would destine India and Pakistan to fight four wars — each more terrible than the last.
Gandhi lived to see the first Indo-Pakistani war which erupted in the mountains of Jammu-Kashmir during the last months of 1947.
A Hindu King ruled the disputed Himalayan region which consisted mostly of Muslim peoples. India and Pakistan wanted to annexe this region into their border.
Pathan tribesmen and Pakistani troops fought for the region before United Nations intervened and the battle line became the de facto new border between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir known to this day as the Line of Control. The first war resulted in roughly two-thirds of Kashmir remaining in Indian hands. Even in those days China sided Pakistan and in 1960 Communist China signed a friendship pact with Pakistan and seized a large portion of Indian-held Kashmir two years later in a surprise offensive This friendship of theirs is still continuing strongly and and recently i.e. September 2009 China is frequently conducting its military excercises right inside the Indian territory. India rather frightfully if watching silently its mischiefs.
A much larger war was fought between India and Pakistan in 1965 over the dominion of Kashmir across the frontiers of West Pakistan. There was a three pronged and India which sent 900,000 troops crushed Pakistani defences. Nearly 500 of Pakistani tanks were destroyed. UN had to intervene and a cease fire forestalled the intervention of Communist China taking active part alongside Pakistan against India.
Six years later in the year 1971 a bloodier Indo-Pakistani conflict took place more forceful then before. A civil war in East Pakistan saw some thousands of refugees crossing over to Indian. The war was between Muslim Bengali insurgents (tacitly supported and armed by India) and the occupying army of mainly West Pakistanis. It started when the wholesale round up and massacre of hundreds of thousands of suspected Bengali civilians by West Pakistani soldiers caused ten million refugees to flood into India making India to feed them. America as always supported Pakistan and accused India of destabilising Pakistan. At that time in US Richard Nixon was the President of America. He cut off India’s American credit. Pakistani got encouraged by this American support and its jets bombed Indian airfields in Kashmir. The Indian army entered the war on the side of the insurgents. The war lasted twelve days and the Indian army successfully shattered Pakistani forces on two fronts and captured an entire Pakistani army of 90,000 men in East Pakistan. A new country by the name of Bangaldesh was born in the place of East Pakistan having its own government.
It was a great loss for Pakistan where it lost not only war but lost half of its population and two-thirds of its exports. Pakistans army and its economy almost collapsed. But Pakistan was supported by America and it tried to catch up with India in a nuclear arms race obtaining nuclear weapons capability at the close of the 1980s. It was also able to supply arms and safe havens for Kashmiri insurgents to wage a decade-long civil war in Jammu-Kashmir. There were frequent Border clashes across the Line of Control throughout the 1990s.
In the year 1990 the two countries nearly fulfilled Gandhi’s prophecy and fought a fourth war. It was rumoured that India was contemplating a preemptive strike to take out Pakistan’s nuclear program but it was dropped since Indian spies informed India that they saw new bomb racks on the wings of Pakistani jet bombers large enough to load atomic weapons. The pros and cons of aftermath of war was taken into account which showed that there could be vast destructions on both sides which cannot be measured. It is not know If Pakistan bluffed of bombing India with its bags full of pay loads of nuclear weapons tied to the wings of jets.
Western intelligence agencies estimate that by mid-decade, Pakistan ... will be capable of manufacturing six Hiroshima-sized bombs per year. Experts believe that India has already stockpiled three hundred kilograms (660 pounds) of weapons-grade material. Current intelligence estimates put its nuclear arsenal at twenty bombs. And if a future Chinese regime should threaten another invasion of India’s Himalayan provinces, the Indians are capable of transforming their current stockpile of plutonium into an arsenal larger than the entire Chinese arsenal to date.
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal both quantitatively (from 60 weapons last year to 70-90 now) and qualitatively -- from uranium-base to being plutonium-centric.
The fact that they are preparing nuclear-capable cruise missiles suggests their scientists have been able to miniaturize nuclear warheads by using plutonium, They are shifting their nuclear base from uranium to plutonium.
Plutonium-based warheads are lighter and easier to handle, a better fit for nimble cruise missiles. India's nuclear arsenal is largely plutonium-based.
A FOURTH — AND NUCLEAR — WAR?
Eight terrorists picked from organizations of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e Tayyaba, stormed the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. All the eight men were killed by the Indian security servicemen, six security servicemen too lost their lives. A large contingents of one Indian army and Pakistani army began moving into position facing each other in the winter of Kashmir along the disputed Line of Control.
Considering the aftermath and dangers of war they did not push farther for any full scale war.
By adopting the Bush terrorism doctrine, India could soon launch an attack on terrorist camps in Pakistani territory but this time, the fourth war foreseen by Gandhi could go nuclear. Current estimates place Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at 8 to 20 atomic bombs, each with a destructive force similar to those used by the United States in their nuclear attack on Japan in 1945. India may have anywhere from 25 to 40 similarly destructive atomic weapons in its arsenal.
When Gandhi and Jinnah debated the partition of India, there were 340 million people in the balance. Fifty-four years and an explosion of population later, Gandhi’s warning of a fourth and catastrophic war places up to 1.2 billion South Asians in the balance. In the worst case scenario, history’s first nuclear “bush” war could extinguish far more people than all those lost in both world wars of the 20th century. The death toll could be in the hundreds of millions.
PRESENT TRENDS
Not all is well for India now do its foreign policies. India which was considered once a non-violence country which advocated peace has no more that kind of brand stamped on it. After its open support to Srilanka's Government sponsored terrorism against Tamilians in that country, which as a matter of fact has gone worst with Tamilians still being killed there without any account, India is at the receiving end now.
A war in future seems certain bettween Pakistan and India, as Mahatma Gandhi predicted this war could bring in worst things with untold sufferings.
China has for some reason is provoking India by making incursions in the Indian borders by flying its helicopters and marching its soldiers.
In all probabality the next war could be a combination of Pakistan and Chinese forces against Indian forces. The danger now confronting India is that it is not in the same position as before to take help from its friendly countries. There is doubt if any country would come forward to help India at that time of crisis.
Pakistan itself may not be interested in a war with India since the people of Pakistan may not want so, but China wants a war with India but it wants to give a back-side support to Pakistan instead of directly waging war with India.
One thing is certain even if India does not want war, China will force a war upon it and will corner India on all sides. Both Pakistan and Srilanka will give China a good support in the fight against India.
This time as already said India may fall short of any help from other countries due to its bad foreign relations under the present Government.
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